A slower northwestward motion is expected later this afternoon through tonight. A turn toward the west or west-southwest is then forecast to begin by Tuesday night and that motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles from the center.

Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeast to east-central Florida beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Florida and Georgia beginning Wednesday.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible across portions of the northwestern Bahamas, much of the east coast of Florida, and portions of coastal Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for most of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula, along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns River.

For the most up-to-date information from the National Hurricane Center, click here.